Anticipatory Water Management – Using ensemble weather forecasts for critical events

The use of weather forecast information with hydrological models can be invaluable for the operational water manager to expand the forecast horizon and to have time to take appropriate action. However, this method, called Anticipatory Water Management, often has adverse effects, such as when flood control actions turn out to have been unnecessary because the actual rainfall was less than predicted. Therefore the uncertainty of the forecasts and the associated risks of applying Anticipatory Water Management have to be assessed. This dissertation presents ways of improving the end-use of ensemble predictions in Anticipatory Water Management.