Predicting Storm Surges: Chaos, Computational Intelligence, Data Assimilation and Ensembles

Accurate predictions of storm surge are of importance in coastal areas. This book focuses on data-driven modelling using methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for predicting storm surges. A number of new enhancements are presented: _x000D_ _x000D_ phase space dimensionality reduction_x000D_ incomplete time series_x000D_ phase error correction_x000D_ finding true neighbours_x000D_ optimization of chaotic model_x000D_ data assimilation_x000D_ multi-model ensembles_x000D_ These were tested on the case studies in the North Sea and Caribbean Sea. Chaotic models appear to be are accurate and reliable short and mid-term predictors of storm surges aimed at supporting decision-makers for flood prediction and ship navigation.